Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.292561 5.133733 6.068468 7.180228 8.462319 9.890155 11.596167
2025-03-16 2.851613 3.914184 5.234214 6.976059 9.193242 11.898737 15.424475
2025-03-23 2.193973 3.387776 5.016037 7.353611 10.569675 14.778381 20.630256
2025-03-30 1.679775 2.887495 4.678345 7.445316 11.512130 17.152554 25.420158
2025-04-06 1.306272 2.480539 4.359824 7.459915 12.286538 19.321901 30.102534
2025-04-13 1.029292 2.147817 4.069776 7.435354 12.952388 21.353451 34.732381
2025-04-20 0.915424 2.066168 4.162234 8.013497 14.589656 24.951286 41.950534
2025-04-27 0.776988 1.900363 4.070666 8.253327 15.686328 27.791004 48.223227
2025-05-04 0.674266 1.778560 4.031835 8.567996 16.924540 30.939292 55.197556
2025-05-11 0.558253 1.595831 3.837981 8.559874 17.583752 33.173427 60.844574
2025-05-18 0.440917 1.375150 3.521496 8.260825 17.669112 34.424733 64.934662
2025-05-25 0.341154 1.165853 3.184256 7.860618 17.504251 35.204051 68.251372
2025-06-01 0.279782 1.042277 3.021357 7.812597 18.038332 37.317679 74.121799
2025-06-08 0.224023 0.915206 2.823563 7.658663 18.346708 39.053253 79.472650
2025-06-15 0.203613 0.891772 2.881084 8.092215 19.908316 43.252039 89.549801
2025-06-22 0.173381 0.823782 2.806280 8.200681 20.788450 46.206604 97.518824
2025-06-29 0.145182 0.751193 2.702115 8.219740 21.472231 48.823233 105.015260
2025-07-06 0.120552 0.681024 2.588100 8.194188 22.049305 51.263184 112.319097
2025-07-13 0.115614 0.690904 2.718077 8.822740 24.179233 56.988307 126.280662
2025-07-20 0.102538 0.659272 2.711252 9.083314 25.474550 61.078867 137.267419
2025-07-27 0.092604 0.637814 2.732908 9.424921 26.993070 65.730205 149.608619
2025-08-03 0.077881 0.584768 2.635645 9.416127 27.660989 68.623257 158.586364
2025-08-10 0.061108 0.509820 2.441035 9.091538 27.510930 69.742167 164.025176